Forecasted Questions
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 34% | -14% | +2% |
| No | 80% | 66% | +14% | -2% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025 | Feb 16, 2025 | 12% | -1% | +4% |
| No | 89% | Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025 | Feb 16, 2025 | 88% | +1% | -4% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 5% | 2% | +3% | -1% |
| Latvia | 5% | 1% | +4% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 02:54PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 02:54PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 02:54PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 02:54PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 8% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 90% | 92% | -2% | +1% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 02:55PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 02:55PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 10% | 24% | -14% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 10% | 40% | -30% | +4% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 02:55PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 02:55PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 8% | 7% | +1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| Georgia | 8% | 4% | +4% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 02:55PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 02:55PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025 | Feb 16, 2025 | 22% | -7% | +0% |
| No | 85% | Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025 | Feb 16, 2025 | 78% | +7% | +0% |