Confirmed previous forecast
-0.388978
Relative Brier Score
62
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 20 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Moldova
5%
(0%)
Armenia
8%
(0%)
Georgia
5%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Togo
10%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(+3%)
Yes
96%
(-3%)
No
Trump election increases probability, but of course he doesn't take office until after this date.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Estonia
5%
(0%)
Latvia
5%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025
89%
(0%)
No
Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(+6%)
Yes
Nov 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2025
90%
(-6%)
No
Nov 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2025
Trump election increases probability of escalation in the region.
Files
Seems Iran will really want to avoid this, but Trump makes things less certain.