MichelleRuiz

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0.816884

Relative Brier Score

2

Forecasts

0

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Forecasts 0 1 14 12 14
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 0 1 11 9 11
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
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This is a nuanced response that takes into account the similar yet distinct realities of each country, depending on political and economic factors. In this regard, both Argentina and Ecuador have set out to restructure their debt, despite facing significant economic challenges. Meanwhile, Bolivia has a high risk of payment default due to its economic and political situation. While they share similar realities, the question should be posed individually to each case.

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Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 10 questions!
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MichelleRuiz
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
50%
Togo
50%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
The Wagner Group and Africa Corps have been expanding their presence in Africa, and it's possible they might deploy to Togo or another African country before January 1, 2026.
Africa Corps has already established a presence in several countries, including Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Libya. The Wagner Group has operated in the Central African Republic, Chad, Mozambique, Sudan, and Mauritania.
Recently, Russia has reinforced its military presence in Libya, with over 1,800 soldiers deployed in the past two weeks. This surge is likely part of Russia's efforts to secure a naval base in Libya and expand its influence in Africa.The Wagner Group and Africa Corps are likely to continue expanding their presence in Africa. However, the exact timing and locations of future deployments remain uncertain.
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MichelleRuiz
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10% (0%)
Estonia
10% (0%)
Latvia
10% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
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Confirmed previous forecast
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Although the United States and China maintain a trade and technological war, Microsoft also seeks to safeguard its interests. It is possible that they relocate some of their resources to countries favorable to American values, but there is hardly any talk of closing their facilities in China. , a country in which they have had a presence since the end of the last century. Closing facilities would be ignoring the trajectory and capabilities they have managed to build. Their presence in China feeds back into their capabilities; they will be able to rethink their strategies, but it will be difficult to close their operations.

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