Confirmed previous forecast
0.816884
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Estonia
10%
(0%)
Latvia
10%
(0%)
Lithuania
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(+30%)
Yes
50%
(-30%)
No
Although the United States and China maintain a trade and technological war, Microsoft also seeks to safeguard its interests. It is possible that they relocate some of their resources to countries favorable to American values, but there is hardly any talk of closing their facilities in China. , a country in which they have had a presence since the end of the last century. Closing facilities would be ignoring the trajectory and capabilities they have managed to build. Their presence in China feeds back into their capabilities; they will be able to rethink their strategies, but it will be difficult to close their operations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
I'm not convinced that a JCPOA participant country will trigger the 'snapback' sanctions on Iran by December 31, 2024. While there are certainly tensions and disagreements between Iran and the Western nations, particularly the US, France, and the UK, most parties seem committed to finding a diplomatic solution.
The 'snapback' process is a complex one, requiring a formal complaint to the UN Security Council, and it's not a decision that's taken lightly. I think it's more likely that the parties will continue to explore diplomatic avenues and negotiations to address concerns around Iran's nuclear program.
That being said, the situation is fluid and can change quickly. If Iran continues to breach its JCPOA commitments or if new developments escalate tensions, it's possible that a participant country might consider triggering 'snapback' sooner rather than later. But for now, I think it's unlikely.
Files
Africa Corps has already established a presence in several countries, including Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Libya. The Wagner Group has operated in the Central African Republic, Chad, Mozambique, Sudan, and Mauritania.
Recently, Russia has reinforced its military presence in Libya, with over 1,800 soldiers deployed in the past two weeks. This surge is likely part of Russia's efforts to secure a naval base in Libya and expand its influence in Africa.The Wagner Group and Africa Corps are likely to continue expanding their presence in Africa. However, the exact timing and locations of future deployments remain uncertain.