MichelleRuiz

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13810-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.1
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Why do you think you're right?

As of today, the FDA typically requires preclinical evidence from a combination of in vitro, in vivo, and in silico studies to support an Investigational New Drug (IND) application. While computational models and in silico studies are becoming increasingly sophisticated and important in drug development, they are not yet sufficient as the sole basis for an IND submission.

It is possible but unlikely that by 2035 the FDA will accept an IND application based solely on in silico studies. However, in silico models will likely play a significantly larger role in reducing the reliance on animal and human preclinical studies. It is more probable that the FDA will accept a hybrid approach where in silico data, combined with limited in vitro or biomimetic system studies, could suffice for an IND submission.

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MichelleRuiz
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 30, 2025 03:29PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
49%
Yes
Dec 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2025
51%
No
Dec 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
It is difficult to predict with certainty whether Iran will be at war with another country in the next year.
The international community has been working to reduce tensions and promote diplomacy in the region, and there are many efforts underway to find peaceful solutions to the conflicts and challenges facing the region. In summary, although it is difficult to predict with certainty whether Iran will be at war with another country in the next year, the current situation and the region's history suggest that there are many factors that could contribute to an increase in tensions and conflicts. However, there are also many efforts underway to promote diplomacy and reduce tensions, which could help prevent a larger conflict.
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Producing DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines capable of high-volume manufacturing is a significant technical challenge . While Chinese organizations like Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE) have made strides in developing these machines, they currently lag behind established players like ASML photolithography. SMEE's prototypes have achieved throughput nearing 90 wafers per hour, but reaching 140 wafers per hour by January 2026 seems optimistic.

Given the technical barriers and the time required for iterative improvements, it's unlikely that a Chinese organization will produce DUV photolithography machines meeting the high-volume manufacturing threshold of 140 wafers per hour before January 2026.

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This is a nuanced response that takes into account the similar yet distinct realities of each country, depending on political and economic factors. In this regard, both Argentina and Ecuador have set out to restructure their debt, despite facing significant economic challenges. Meanwhile, Bolivia has a high risk of payment default due to its economic and political situation. While they share similar realities, the question should be posed individually to each case.

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Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 10 questions!
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