RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	8%	9%	-1%	+1%
Su-35 fighter jets	8%	7%	+1%	-5%

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	21%	+9%	-34%
No	70%	79%	-9%	+34%

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	-1%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	-1%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
Saudi Arabia	2%	3%	-1%	-2%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	21%	7%	+14%	-11%
Armenia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	0%	3%	-3%	-2%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	-1%

MikeAp