Forecasted Questions
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(5 months ago)
May 03, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 8% | 9% | -1% | +1% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 8% | 7% | +1% | -5% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(5 months ago)
May 03, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 30% | 21% | +9% | -34% |
No | 70% | 79% | -9% | +34% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(5 months ago)
May 03, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
Saudi Arabia | 2% | 3% | -1% | -2% |
Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(5 months ago)
May 03, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 21% | 7% | +14% | -11% |
Armenia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Georgia | 0% | 3% | -3% | -2% |
Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |