Doesn't look like it's going to happen in 2 days...
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
21
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 10 | 59 | 21 | 134 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 36 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 10 | 28 | 12 | 41 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A miracle.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
88%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(0%)
Yes
84%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 30, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
50%
(0%)
No
Mar 30, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 30, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 30, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2026
93%
(0%)
No
Mar 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(+5%)
Moldova
1%
(+1%)
Armenia
1%
(+1%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Putin is emboldened and Moldova has been on his chopping block for some time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine is keeping him busy for now. Between that, and a brief recharge period, he may not invade Moldova - if he does - until after April of 2027.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
A short ceasefire seems most likely. Although, if things go well, maybe a longer one will ensue.
Why might you be wrong?
The middle ground seems least likely here to me, but that's based mostly on Russia's history of violating ceasefires.