Forecasted Questions
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 05:55AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Oct 24, 2024 05:55AM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Nov 24, 2024 | 18% | -3% | -4% |
| No | 85% | Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Nov 24, 2024 | 82% | +3% | +4% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 05:03AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 05:03AM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 06:02AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 06:02AM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 23% | +7% | -1% |
| No | 70% | 77% | -7% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 05:23AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 27, 2024 05:23AM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 8% | 8% | +0% | +1% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 05:56AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 05:56AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 2% | 6% | -4% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 98% | 92% | +6% | -1% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:49AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 06:49AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 05:12AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 05:12AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts
24 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 05:27AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 05:27AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 02:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 01, 2024 02:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 37% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 65% | 63% | +2% | +1% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 02:08PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 01, 2024 02:08PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 15% | +5% | -1% |
| No | 80% | 85% | -5% | +1% |