Forecasted Questions
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 06:23AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 10, 2024 06:23AM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 2% | 4% | -2% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 98% | 94% | +4% | +1% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 07:09AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 07:09AM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 02:46AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 02:46AM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 0% | 3% | -3% | -1% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 06:49AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 13, 2024 06:49AM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 06:42AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 06:42AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32% | 36% | -4% | -1% |
| No | 68% | 64% | +4% | +1% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 06:44AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 06:44AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 9% | +11% | -3% |
| No | 80% | 91% | -11% | +3% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 04:55AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 15, 2024 04:55AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 07:28AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 07:28AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 07:29AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 07:29AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 33% | Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025 | Dec 16, 2024 | 24% | +9% | +2% |
| No | 67% | Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025 | Dec 16, 2024 | 76% | -9% | -2% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 06:16AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 06:16AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 34% | +6% | +2% |
| No | 60% | 66% | -6% | -2% |