RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 6, 2025 05:54AM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	6%	7%	-1%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 7, 2025 05:42AM
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	6%	+2%	+2%
No	92%	94%	-2%	-2%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 8, 2025 08:22AM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Mar 8, 2025 to Sep 8, 2025	Apr 8, 2025 08:22AM	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	Mar 8, 2025 to Sep 8, 2025	Apr 8, 2025 08:22AM	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
34 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 10, 2025 05:38AM
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(13 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 11, 2025 06:19AM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	-1%
No	99%	95%	+4%	+1%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 12, 2025 05:46AM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 13, 2025 05:45AM
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2025 06:02AM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	10%	+2%	+0%
No	88%	90%	-2%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2025 07:00AM
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025	Apr 16, 2025 07:00AM	6%	-1%	+0%
No	95%	Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025	Apr 16, 2025 07:00AM	94%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 17, 2025 06:56AM
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	0%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	0%

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