Confirmed previous forecast
-0.131624
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
92
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 25 | 340 | 92 | 1285 |
| Comments | 0 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 54 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 11 | 22 | 14 | 85 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 64 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Dropping further with Nvidia still in 3rd place.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Downgrading to ~0% due to Trump's tariffs.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files