Forecasted Questions
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 04:40AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 04:40AM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 2% | +5% | +1% |
| No | 93% | 98% | -5% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 04:40AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 04:40AM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 04:41AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 04:41AM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 04:16PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 04:16PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 30% | 24% | +6% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 10% | 40% | -30% | +2% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 04:17PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 04:17PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 2% | 9% | -7% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 6% | 6% | +0% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 07:26PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 07:26PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025 | Dec 17, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025 | Dec 17, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 3% | 7% | -4% | +0% |
| Armenia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 9% | +16% | +0% |
| No | 75% | 91% | -16% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 97% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 03:27PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 03:27PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 8% | -6% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 92% | +6% | +0% |