RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 21, 2024 01:58PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 21, 2024 02:00PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	22%	-20%	-8%
No	98%	78%	+20%	+8%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 02:10PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	16%	-3%	+7%
No	87%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	84%	+3%	-7%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 02:38PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	2%	9%	-7%	-2%
Su-35 fighter jets	6%	7%	-1%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 05:32PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	0%	+1%	0%
No	99%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	100%	-1%	0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 04:02PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	1%	+3%	+0%
No	96%	99%	-3%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 04:02PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	0%	+0%	0%
No	100%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	100%	+0%	0%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 04:03PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	18%	22%	-4%	-1%
More than or equal to 28%	82%	77%	+5%	+2%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 12:11PM UTC
(14 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	52%	33%	+19%	+3%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	20%	40%	-20%	+1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 12:12PM UTC
(14 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	41%	-27%	+0%
No	86%	59%	+27%	+0%

NukePirate

About: