Confirmed previous forecast
0.35106
Relative Brier Score
191
Forecasts
16
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 10 | 24 | 199 | 191 | 419 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 119 |
| Questions Forecasted | 10 | 23 | 33 | 30 | 61 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 19 | 16 | 45 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-5%)
Yes
98%
(+5%)
No
US presidential election has empowered Israel to continue the fight.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025
No reason to believe China will disrupt status quo while new administration is taking positions on new policy approaches.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
6%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Russia has more need than Iran at this time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Togo
10%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/11/19/iran-defies-international-pressure-increasing-its-stockpile-of-near-weapons-grade-uranium-un-says.html?ESRC=eb_241120.nl&utm_medium=email&utm_source=eb&utm_campaign=20241120