Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
30
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 4 | 185 | 30 | 474 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 137 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 4 | 29 | 12 | 63 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 48 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Togo
2%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
(0%)
Yes
86%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 18, 2025 07:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 18, 2025 to Sep 18, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Mar 18, 2025 to Sep 18, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Israel relaunched strikes on Hamas and the ceasefire looks to be dead. Political cost to a Muslim country diplomatically recognizing during active combat is very, very high.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A truly asymmetric solution to combat might be to bind Israel diplomatically to a Muslim country.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 18, 2025 07:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 18, 2025 to Sep 18, 2025
85%
(0%)
No
Mar 18, 2025 to Sep 18, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I have not seen signs of change in status quo.
Why might you be wrong?
Previous