Forecasted Questions
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 10, 2025 02:58PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 10, 2025 02:58PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 10% | 4% | +6% | -6% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 10, 2025 02:58PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 10, 2025 02:58PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 17% | -7% | -13% |
| No | 90% | 83% | +7% | +13% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2025 11:38PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jul 01, 2025 11:38PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 3% | -3% | -1% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2025 11:38PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jul 01, 2025 11:38PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 3% | 6% | -3% | -2% |
| Armenia | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
| Georgia | 1% | 3% | -2% | -2% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2025 11:46PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jul 01, 2025 11:46PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S. | 0% | 1% | -1% | -5% |
| More than €0 but less than €10 billion | 7% | 1% | +6% | -6% |
| At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion | 42% | 5% | +37% | -39% |
| At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion | 39% | 50% | -11% | +19% |
| €30 billion or more | 12% | 41% | -29% | +30% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2025 11:48PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jul 01, 2025 11:48PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +1% |