162nd
Accuracy Rank

PeruforecastSacredvalley

About:

Started forecasting in GJP 2.0, collaborating with RANGE, and since 2023, very happy to learn & colaborate here at RAND - INFER.

Modeling parameters based on Eponyms, a tool to provide more accurate forecasts using a few "principles, laws and effects".

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Forecasted Questions
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Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 13, 2024 03:57AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 90% 10%
No 10% 90%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 09:31PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 1% 3%
Kyiv 1% 1%
Odesa 1% 2%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 09:31PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 09:32PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 5%
No 99% 95%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 09:32PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 2%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 09:32PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 09:33PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 90% 97%
No 10% 3%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 09:34PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 50% Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025 Feb 2, 2025 22%
No 50% Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025 Feb 2, 2025 78%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 09:34PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 45% Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025 Feb 2, 2025 12%
No 55% Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025 Feb 2, 2025 88%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 09:34PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 55% 36%
No 45% 64%
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