RAND Forecasting Initiative

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 06:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
19	0%	0%	+0%	0%
18	0%	0%	+0%	0%
17	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
16 or fewer	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 06:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Not before 2026	99%	98%	+1%	0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 06:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026	Jan 15, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026	Jan 15, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
39 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 06:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026	Jan 15, 2026	0%	+1%	0%
No	99%	Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026	Jan 15, 2026	100%	-1%	0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 06:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	3%	-1%	0%
Latvia	2%	2%	+0%	0%
Lithuania	2%	3%	-1%	0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 01:42PM UTC
(17 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	99%	68%	+31%	0%
30 days	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
31-60 days	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
61-90 days	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
91 days or more	0%	16%	-16%	+0%

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 01:43PM UTC
(17 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
No	100%	97%	+3%	+0%

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 01:43PM UTC
(17 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	95%	+5%	+0%
No	0%	5%	-5%	+0%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 01:43PM UTC
(17 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	15%	-10%	-1%
No	95%	85%	+10%	+1%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 01:43PM UTC
(17 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

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