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134th

Accuracy Rank

PeruforecastSacredvalley

About:

Started forecasting in GJP 2.0, collaborating with RANGE, and since 2023, very happy to learn & colaborate here at RAND - INFER.

Modeling parameters based on Eponyms, a tool to provide more accurate forecasts using a few "principles, laws and effects".

Top Forecaster - May 2024

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Power Forecaster - Jul 2024

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Forecasted Questions

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 11:44PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	96%	-46%	+2%
No	50%	4%	+46%	-2%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 11:44PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	8%	+7%	+0%
No	85%	Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	92%	-7%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 08, 2024 04:07PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 8, 2024 to Sep 8, 2025	Dec 8, 2024	5%	-5%	+1%
No	100%	Sep 8, 2024 to Sep 8, 2025	Dec 8, 2024	95%	+5%	-1%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	43%	+47%	-1%
No	10%	57%	-47%	+1%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 06:36PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	6%	+4%	-1%
No	90%	94%	-4%	+1%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 06:36PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	22%	-21%	-4%
No	99%	78%	+21%	+4%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 06:36PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	0%	+0%	0%
No	100%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	100%	+0%	0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 06:36PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 06:36PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Dec 24, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 06:37PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%