RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2024 01:16PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	44%	-36%	-1%
No	92%	56%	+36%	+1%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 11, 2024 07:45AM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 11, 2024 07:16PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025	Nov 11, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025	Nov 11, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 11, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2026	Jan 11, 2025	7%	-7%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2026	Jan 11, 2025	93%	+7%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 11, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025	Jan 11, 2025	5%	-5%	-1%
No	100%	Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025	Jan 11, 2025	95%	+5%	+1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	1%	8%	-7%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	3%	4%	-1%	+1%
Kazakhstan	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:24PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025	Jan 13, 2025	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
40 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 06:12PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025	Nov 26, 2024	4%	-3%	+1%
No	99%	Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025	Nov 26, 2024	96%	+3%	-1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 06:18PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	8%	-2%	-1%
No	94%	Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	92%	+2%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 09:09AM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	30%	25%	+5%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	51%	35%	+16%	-5%

Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

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