171st
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Pramila

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023) 0.002
Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 11, 2023 and Oct 11, 2023) 0.046677
Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023) 0.005
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023? 0.017287
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024? 0.441234
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive? 0.088081
Sep 05, 2023 08:34AM UTC Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024? 0.02703
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023? -0.000931
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023? -0.000927
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree? 0.025033
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India? 0.0014
Aug 22, 2023 09:00AM UTC Will Prayut Chan-o-cha be re-elected as prime minister of Thailand by the Thai parliament after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024? -0.004168
Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM UTC Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023? 0.064427
Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023) 0.007535
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? 0.041614
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record at least 50 protests or riots or at least 10 protest- or riot-related fatalities in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province? 0.00039
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia? 0.000347
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya? 0.000198
Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023) 0.016
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? 0.137516
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