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Pramila

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Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

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Forecasted Questions

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:15PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	2%	1%	+1%	0%
Oman	2%	2%	+0%	0%
Qatar	1%	1%	+0%	0%
Saudi Arabia	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:15PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	5%	+1%	+0%
No	94%	95%	-1%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	13%	13%	+0%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	53%	50%	+3%	-2%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	32%	33%	-1%	+2%
More than or equal to 80	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Feb 20, 2025	0%	+1%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Feb 20, 2025	4%	+1%	+0%
No	95%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Feb 20, 2025	96%	-1%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	10%	11%	-1%	+0%
Kenya	9%	9%	+0%	+0%
Ethiopia	36%	35%	+1%	+0%
Nigeria	4%	5%	-1%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	0%	+1%	0%
No	99%	100%	-1%	0%