0.630777
Relative Brier Score
52
Forecasts
10
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 48 | 159 | 591 | 545 | 1329 |
Comments | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 166 |
Questions Forecasted | 47 | 48 | 88 | 73 | 198 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 3 | 46 | 42 | 124 |
Definitions |
slight adjustment
some reports suggest that his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, could be positioned to succeed him, with some secret discussions already taking place within Iran’s political circles. His health issues do suggest a possible shift in leadership within the coming year.
less likely
Russian government cyberattack against NATO energy or transportation infrastructure causing physical damage or human casualties within the next 18 months is less likely. While Russia has a history of cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, including targeting Ukraine and NATO countries' networks, these attacks have primarily disrupted services and stolen data rather than directly causing physical harm. The current cybersecurity measures in NATO countries, alongside the relatively low success rates of causing kinetic effects through cyberattacks, suggest that while the risk is serious, it may not escalate to a level resulting in casualties or physical damage in the short term.
going with crowd
Currently, Huawei has not announced plans to sell Open RAN equipment, nor is it actively involved in promoting Open RAN solutions. Huawei has instead emphasized its integrated and proprietary 5G RAN solutions, maintaining dominance in traditional markets. Open RAN, which allows interoperability among multiple vendors, has been gaining traction globally, but primarily among Huawei's competitors.
Despite widespread unrest, there has not been a recent large-scale, prolonged protest involving 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week. Many protests remain localized, such as strikes in industrial sectors and rallies by retirees across various cities, often met with crackdowns by security forces. While Iran's economic and political climate creates fertile ground for major protests, the government's aggressive suppression tactics have limited the scale and duration of recent uprisings.
slight possibility