RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:07PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	13%	13%	+0%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	55%	51%	+4%	-1%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	30%	34%	-4%	+2%
More than or equal to 80	2%	2%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:07PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	8%	+3%	-2%
No	89%	92%	-3%	+2%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:07PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	18%	16%	+2%	-4%
Bolivia	23%	22%	+1%	-1%
Ecuador	14%	12%	+2%	-1%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:10PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	31%	34%	-3%	+3%
No	69%	66%	+3%	-3%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:10PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	9%	+7%	-4%
No	84%	91%	-7%	+4%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:11PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	10%	+5%	-5%
No	85%	Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	90%	-5%	+5%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:12PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	12%	+4%	-3%
No	84%	Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	88%	-4%	+3%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:12PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	10%	11%	-1%	+0%
Kenya	9%	9%	+0%	+0%
Ethiopia	32%	35%	-3%	+3%
Nigeria	4%	5%	-1%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:13PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2026	Feb 12, 2025	12%	-6%	+4%
No	94%	Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2026	Feb 12, 2025	88%	+6%	-4%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:15PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	3%	1%	+2%	-2%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	15%	8%	+8%	-7%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	28%	27%	+1%	-1%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	34%	37%	-3%	+3%
More than or equal to 90	20%	27%	-7%	+7%

Rishab-Bhattarai

Rishab Bhattarai

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