RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	5%	+3%	-1%
No	92%	95%	-3%	+1%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	28%	22%	+6%	-6%
More than or equal to 28%	72%	77%	-5%	+6%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	25%	+5%	-3%
No	70%	75%	-5%	+3%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
Kyiv	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Odesa	3%	1%	+2%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:12PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	5%	3%	+2%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:12PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:12PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025	Dec 27, 2024	8%	0%	+2%
No	92%	Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025	Dec 27, 2024	92%	0%	-2%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:12PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	100%	-1%	+0%

Rishab-Bhattarai

Rishab Bhattarai

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