98th

Accuracy Rank

Rishab-Bhattarai

Rishab Bhattarai

About:

Active Forecaster

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Questions Forecasted

Active Forecaster

View All Badges »

Forecasted Questions

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:15PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	21%	Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	24%	-3%	+4%
No	79%	Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	76%	+3%	-4%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:16PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	37%	38%	-1%	+1%
No	63%	62%	+1%	-1%

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	31%	-6%	+6%
No	75%	69%	+6%	-6%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	99%	-1%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	35%	32%	+3%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	62%	65%	-3%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	3%	3%	+0%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	5%	+0%	+0%
No	95%	95%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	3%	3%	0%	+0%
Kyiv	1%	1%	+0%	0%
Odesa	3%	2%	+1%	+0%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	5%	4%	+1%	+0%
More than or equal to 28%	95%	94%	+1%	+0%