RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:12PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	0%	+1%	0%
No	99%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	100%	-1%	0%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	86%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	85%	+1%	+0%
No	14%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	15%	-1%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:22PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	28%	33%	-5%	+2%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	41%	40%	+1%	+1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:22PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	46%	43%	+3%	-2%
No	54%	57%	-3%	+2%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:23PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	6%	+4%	-2%
No	90%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	94%	-4%	+2%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:24PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	73%	Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	86%	-13%	+12%
No	27%	Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	14%	+13%	-12%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:24PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	47%	44%	+3%	+1%
No	53%	56%	-3%	-1%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	24%	21%	+3%	-3%
No	76%	79%	-3%	+3%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:26PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	53%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	55%	-2%	+6%
No	47%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	45%	+2%	-6%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 03:26PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	11%	+3%	+0%
No	86%	89%	-3%	+0%

Rishab-Bhattarai

Rishab Bhattarai

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