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SOUZACaio

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Forecasted Questions
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Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 11%
No 97% 89%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 67% 25%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 60% 35%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2024 07:57PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 61% Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 Nov 14, 2024 51%
No 39% Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 Nov 14, 2024 49%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2024 07:57PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 44% 39%
No 56% 61%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2024 07:58PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 98% 97%
No 2% 3%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2024 07:58PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 Nov 14, 2024 1%
No 100% Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 Nov 14, 2024 99%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2024 07:59PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 0% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 0% 4%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 1% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 1%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 12:44PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 12:44PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 12:44PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%
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