Forecasted Questions
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 07:50PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 07:50PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 6% | 7% | -1% | -1% |
No | 94% | 93% | +1% | +1% |
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 51% | 37% | +14% | -5% |
No | 49% | 63% | -14% | +5% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 09:12PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 09:12PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 38% | Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 | Nov 22, 2024 | 14% | +24% | -10% |
No | 62% | Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 | Nov 22, 2024 | 86% | -24% | +10% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 7% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 7% | +0% | -5% |
No | 93% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 93% | +0% | +5% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Jan 28, 2025 | 4% | -3% | -2% |
No | 99% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Jan 28, 2025 | 96% | +3% | +2% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:46PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 06:46PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 | Jan 28, 2025 | 22% | -22% | -9% |
No | 100% | Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 | Jan 28, 2025 | 78% | +22% | +9% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:53PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 06:53PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Odesa | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 03, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |