133rd
Accuracy Rank

SOUZACaio

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Forecasted Questions

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 07:50PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 6% 7%
No 94% 93%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 51% 37%
No 49% 63%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 09:12PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 38% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 14%
No 62% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 86%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 7% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 7%
No 93% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 93%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 1%
No 100% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 99%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 4%
No 99% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 96%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:46PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 22%
No 100% Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 78%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:53PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 1% 3%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 1% 2%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%
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