Confirmed previous forecast
0.030825
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 17 | 13 | 55 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 25, 2024 01:48PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 25, 2024 01:48PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
(+55%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
20%
(-55%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
Israel calls up troops for operations near Lebanon border; Hezbollah fires first missile at Tel Aviv
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 17, 2024 07:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 17, 2024 to Feb 17, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 17, 2024 to Feb 17, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 24, 2024 11:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(-5%)
Yes
Jul 24, 2024 to Jul 24, 2025
75%
(+5%)
No
Jul 24, 2024 to Jul 24, 2025
Updated my forecast. It looks less likely for war to be declared as no new information is coming...
Files