Confirmed previous forecast
0.040708
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
17
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 62 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 26, 2025 08:11PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Feb 26, 2025 to Aug 26, 2025
97%
No
Feb 26, 2025 to Aug 26, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
There isn't any news about North Korea's nuclear test within the short term of the next six months. I cannot see any potential trigger here.
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Why might you be wrong?
The decision of North Korea could be surprising sometimes
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 04:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 28, 2025 to Jul 28, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Jan 28, 2025 to Jul 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I am zeroing the odds since time is almost up
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Why might you be wrong?
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 24, 2025 07:37PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Dec 24, 2024 to Jun 24, 2025
100%
No
Dec 24, 2024 to Jun 24, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
impossible
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Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
36%
Yes
64%
No
I was suggested to make a forecast for this question but I have limited knowledge in this industry. Following the crowd forecast here
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