Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:57PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 07:57PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:01PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 08:01PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 100% | -1% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:14PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 08:14PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 33% | 34% | -1% | +12% |
| No | 67% | 66% | +1% | -12% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:19PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 08:19PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 1% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 94% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 99% | -5% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:33PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 08:33PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Jan 31, 2025 | 22% | -12% | -4% |
| No | 90% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Jan 31, 2025 | 78% | +12% | +4% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:41PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 08:41PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 4% | 2% | +2% | -1% |
| Latvia | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:49PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 08:49PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2024 09:27PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 06, 2024 09:27PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | 97% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2024 09:35PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 06, 2024 09:35PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 01:02AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 01:02AM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 12% | +38% | -2% |
| No | 50% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 88% | -38% | +2% |