TBall

A 72-year old American male has a 3.1% chance of dying in the next year. Assuming Putin has similar prospects. This plus the chance of incapacitation forcing resignation or palace coup because of failures in Ukraine, balanced against presumption that he is getting the best health care possible, leads me to go with the actuarial tables. I do not see assassination as likely. 

3.1%/year divided by 2.5/12 months = 0.6%. Round to nearest whole number.  

A mere $300bn behind with 47 days to go. But AAPL and MSFT sell its of things to lots of people whilst NVIDIA sells to a far narrower market. 

If Harris were president, I'd say that Russia would not invade a NATO member state, certainly not while it remains tied up in Ukraine. But might JD Vance announce that the US will no longer defend the Baltics? Who knows? 

A 72-year old American male has a 3.1% chance of dying in the next year. Assuming Putin has similar prospects. This plus the chance of incapacitation forcing resignation or palace coup because of failures in Ukraine, balanced against presumption that he is getting the best health care possible, leads me to go with the actuarial tables. I do not see assassination as likely. 

Will Israel and/or the US attack? Earlier, a 1-in-6 chance felt about right.  Now, time is passing, Israel is back at war in Gaza, Iran is laying low. Dropping to 1-in-10.  

Previously I wrote that it depends on the day. But now there are only 62 days left in the question and NVIDIA is in 3rd place, $500bn behind the top position held by Apple and also training Microsoft. Few things are going to impact AAPL or MSFT share prices as erratically as they impact NVIDIA...the top two sell great products worldwide, have been doing so for decades, and are not going anywhere before June. 

From an actuarial perspective, Khamenei’s reign is almost certainly in its final years [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/will-irans-next-supreme-leader-be-last-khamenei-akbar-ganji?check_logged_in=1]. He will be 86-years old in three weeks. An 86-year old American male has a 11.7% chance of dying in the next year. This plus the chance of incapacitation forcing resignation, balanced against presumption that he is getting the best health care possible, leads me to go with the actuarial tables, plus 2 for consistent reports of real health issues including a previous bout with cancer.