Forecasted Questions
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 06:01PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 06:01PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 2% | 3% | -1% | -1% |
| Kyiv | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Odesa | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 12:10AM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Nov 22, 2024 12:10AM UTC
(13 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025 | Feb 22, 2025 | 12% | +3% | -2% |
| No | 85% | Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025 | Feb 22, 2025 | 88% | -3% | +2% |