Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 11:14PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 11:14PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
No | 97% | 99% | -2% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 02:33PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 28, 2024 02:33PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 15% | Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025 | Dec 28, 2024 | 5% | +10% | +1% |
No | 85% | Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025 | Dec 28, 2024 | 95% | -10% | -1% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:19PM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 08:19PM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | 0% |
No | 99% | 100% | -1% | 0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:26PM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 08:26PM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
Latvia | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
Lithuania | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:30PM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 08:30PM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |
Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |
Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
Saudi Arabia | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:34PM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 08:34PM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 29% | 11% | +18% | +0% |
No | 71% | 89% | -18% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:54PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 08:54PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 33% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 30, 2024 | 8% | +25% | +1% |
No | 67% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 30, 2024 | 92% | -25% | -1% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:58PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 08:58PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 98% | 96% | +2% | +0% |
No | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 75% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 55% | +20% | +3% |
No | 25% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 45% | -20% | -3% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 67% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 17% | +50% | +2% |
No | 33% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 83% | -50% | -2% |