12th
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TBall

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024) -0.03142
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.176464
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.150016
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? 0.000066
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? -0.000007
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024? -0.000015
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? -0.000009
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia? 0.0
Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela? 0.0
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.000027
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.000275
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? 0.0
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024) -0.274564
Apr 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024) 0.011294
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024) 0.00105
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? 0.0
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024) 0.0018
Mar 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024) 0.005721
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election? 0.0
Mar 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024) 0.002193
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