TBall

Would France, the UK, or Germany do this in the next 61 days? (Assuming there's zero chance China, Russia or Iran would, and near-zero chance the EU could do so in such a short time). 

The possible election of Donald Trump as US president (p = 0.6, IMHO) throws a wild card into this question. Trump's position on NATO and on the Baltics is at least somewhat questionable, as is his approach to relations with Russia. Would he really go ballistic (pun intended) over a Russian attempt to "rescue" beleaguered citizens in Kaliningrad via a land corridor through Lithuania? 

Iran has engaged in significant military actions against Israel in 2024, but there is no evidence  Iran formally declared itself to be at war.. The characterization of Iran's actions as a "declaration of war" has been made by Israeli leaders, but not Iranian leaders.  However, Israel has not formally declared war on Iran.

And if neither side has yet done so, it seems less and less likely. 

Sixty-one days to go. That's not enough time for ceasefire deals to be in place between Israel and Hamas, and then for the Saudis to overcome domestic resistance. If the question asked about 610 days, my forecast would be very high. 

Increasing 1 point to record my upward bias. The wars with Gaza and Lebanon may not be ending and it may not be the beginning of the end, but it seems like the end of the beginning. Saudi Arabia could be first to make move if some sort of deal is struck with Hamas, and there's at least a coin-toss chance that Trump (progenitor of the Abraham Accords) will be in the Oval Office. 

NVIDIA is now #2, but volatility remains high. Slight increase in forecast but low confidence this far out.  

An 85-year old American male has a 10.5% chance of dying in the next year. This plus the chance of incapacitation forcing resignation, balanced against presumption that he is getting the best health care possible, leads me to go with the actuarial tables. After the missile exchanges between Iran and Israel over the last month have died down, reverting to previous forecast. I do not see assassination as likely; Israel would not want to go this far and he is doubtlessly very well protected.

Dropping one point for the passage of time, 10-->9%.

@VidurKapur, thanks for the useful comments!

When the UN Security Council takes time to consider the region, it thinks first of Lebanon and then Gaza. That fills allotted meeting time. The UN has never cared a lot about Yemen and certainly doesn't at present, so there will be little pressure on the parties.