Of course this is highly, highly unlikely. But surprised so many GJ Superforecasters have forecast 0%. Y'all know better! Maybe you are rounding down....
0.467871
Relative Brier Score
86
Forecasts
19
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 22 | 160 | 115 | 469 |
| Comments | 3 | 9 | 38 | 24 | 117 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 12 | 41 | 29 | 90 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 81 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
I think you should round when necessary :)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
(+28%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
5%
(-28%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
In the next day....
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
(+23%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
5%
(-23%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
In the next day....
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
67%
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
33%
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Cyber counts, as would a strike on an Iranian missile site. Israel is wiping Hezbollah leadership out and the probability that Iran does something to show it is a worthwhile ally and friend increases, which could give Israel a reason to counterstrike.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Does not happen often, and the Iranians do not seem to want a real war. They are good at balancing appearance with reality, doing something to show their mettle but not so much that the really make Israel angry.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+1%)
Yes
2%
(-1%)
No
Increasing by one for passage of time and him still not gone.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
33%
(+21%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
67%
(-21%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Hmmm...this is NOT a forecast question asking whether Iran will be at war. Rather, it asks whether Iran or another country (Israel) will SAY it is at war. From the RC: "This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if Iran declares war on another country, Iran’s senior political or military leaders (e.g., the Supreme Leader, the President, a commander of one of Iran’s Armed Forces, etc.) state that they are at war with another country, or if another country declares war on Iran."
How close are we coming? Netanyahu this past week at the UN: "My country is at war, fighting for its life." and "Israel was soon forced to defend itself on six more war fronts organized by Iran." and "...as Israel defends itself against Iran in this seven-front war, the lines separating the blessing and the curse could not be more clear. " [https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-netanyahus-un-speech-enough-is-enough-he-says-of-hezbollah-also-warns-iran/]
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
29%
(0%)
Yes
71%
(0%)
No
Holding forecast for now. NVIDIA doing well, re-approaching its previous highs.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
1%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
2%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?
None of these states like Hamas or Hezbollah or Iran. Their leaders have shed few tears over the decades for the Palestinians, nor have they ever themselves tried to help materially (i.e., resettle Palestinian refugees in their own lands). Most would see benefits from normalizing with Israel. But hard to do while the Israelis pulverize their Arab neighbors. Three months remain...not enough time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The wars against Hamas and Hezbollah won't last forever. Some sort of grand bargain might emerge with ceasefires all around and diplomatic rapprochement.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
4%
(0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Red Team: Trump is elected, declares that the Balts have not done their fair share for NATO, says he will not honor Article 5 commitments to them, Putin manufactures a crisis, deploys sufficient troops that RFI sees as "significant."
Red Team 2: Harris is elected, some sort of Afghanistan Departure 2.0 occurs (abandonment of Israel? failure to support Philippines in dust-up with China?), Putin senses lack of resolve, deploys sufficient troops that RFI sees as "significant" to test the waters.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Invading Georgia 2008 or Ukraine 2014 and 2022 were simpler...non-NATO! The base rate for invading NATO member states is zero.
Files
In four years (2020-2023), seven sub-Saharan nations (Mali, Chad, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon) saw 9 successful coups --> 2.25 per year...so on average 1.125 coups per half year.
"In the 10 years before 2021, there had been on average less than one successful coup per year" [https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/]. In fact, 2000-2019 saw 14 coups in 20 years = 0.7 coups per year, or 0.35 coups per half year.
As I have explained below, the VoA data do not include the Tunisian self-coup of 2021 (while such self-coups do count for resolution here), so in 2020-2023 there were actually 10 coups for a rate of 2.5/year...
On the other hand, and trying to guess for 2024, all but 1 of these 10 coups in 2020-2023 had happened before Sep 30 (the Sudan coup of Oct 25, 2021 was the sole exception)...