Worried @LogicCurve might be right and a test is more likely than base rate. KJU may wish to signal Trump while still on Biden's watch that "We are here, we are here, we are here!" The new DPRK tactical nuke has not been tested yet, something they'd want to do before deploying. And ROK intelligence got the ICBM warning right...at a time when they also warned of a nuke test.
-0.001629
Relative Brier Score
180
Forecasts
41
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025
50%
No
Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025
Files
However, DJT will change the relationship with Russia (as it currently stands), and has already had discussions with Putin. Asking Putin not to escalate the war with Ukraine. If in fact the collaboration with Putin is valid - the question must be asked: Would Putin validate North Korea conducting a nuclear test? All behaviors of North Korea will now have a reflection on Putin.
Trump advised Putin not to escalate war with Ukraine
Putin and KJU have recently entered into a military pact https://www.newsweek.com/russian-lawmakers-ratify-military-pact-north-korea-1974214
White House Says North Korea Military In Russia 'Highly Concerning'
"Russian lawmakers on Thursday ratified a military pact with North Korea, deepening ties between the two nations as the U.S. confirmed it was aware of the deployment of 3,000 North Korean troops to Russia.
The agreement signals an increased level of military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, raising concerns in the West.
The State Duma, the lower house of the Russian Parliament, swiftly endorsed the "comprehensive strategic partnership" treaty that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during a visit to Pyongyang in June.
The treaty obliges both countries to provide immediate military assistance using "all means" if either is attacked, marking the most significant alliance between the two nations since the end of the Cold War."
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
3%
(-1%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(+1%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Adjusting after more thinking. The capabilities of Venezuelan armed forces leave much to be desired, and Maduro likely understands that a failed invasion attempt against Guyana would undermine his rule.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
4%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
- Ground invasion tricky given terrain, the fact that armed forces might be better utilized to protect the regime, the likelihood of sparking US intervention. Dictators only want to mount an invasion if they are certain it will succeed...otherwise, very bad for them! But giving 1-in-33 odds that some small incident could occur, like a patrol crossing the border to test Guyanese response to possible larger incursion.
- Would attacks with water cannons count? What about the Venezuelan Coast Guard ramming ExxonMobil re-supply vessels?
- After the referendum, how could this be done without loss of face?
- Guyana has US pledges of support...why would they give something up at this time?
Files
I requested clarification from the Admins on how we would discern "intent" in this line in the RC: "We will consider Venezuela to have invaded Guyana if Venezuelan troops enter Guyana with the intent of occupying...."
Their quick and useful response was, "For the purposes of this question, we would interpret intent based on observable actions rather than trying to infer motives. Depending on the situation, we may need to wait for additional information to know whether an incursion was a brief or unintentional crossing or an attempt to occupy, capture or control territory. For cases where intent is ambiguous (e.g., a staged border incident), we will consider reports from reliable news sources and official responses from both countries, and use our best judgment to make a determination."
I also asked about #2 above, whether attacks by water cannons would count, etc. Admins replied, "With regard to Venezuelan attacks on offshore Guyanese oil wells, firing on or any other hostile actions that cause physical harm to oil wells, infrastructure, or support vessels would be considered an attack. Ramming re-supply vessels would count, and attacks with water cannons would likely count provided they cause physical damage or cause significant disruption in operations."
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
1%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Of course the probability is < 100%, but not by much. At age 62, Maduro’s probability of suffering a fatal health incident is below 2%. Other threats to his rule are diffuse. Maduro retains support from the internal security forces, and the political opposition is disorganized and in hiding or in exile.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
People die.
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Would France, the UK, or Germany do this in the next 61 days? (Assuming there's zero chance China, Russia or Iran would, and near-zero chance the EU could do so in such a short time).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Israel-Iran fighting escalates, and Iran declares it has nuclear warheads/will work on nuclear warheads/has Russian support to build nuclear warheads/etc.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(+1%)
Estonia
4%
(+1%)
Latvia
5%
(+1%)
Lithuania
The possible election of Donald Trump as US president (p = 0.6, IMHO) throws a wild card into this question. Trump's position on NATO and on the Baltics is at least somewhat questionable, as is his approach to relations with Russia. Would he really go ballistic (pun intended) over a Russian attempt to "rescue" beleaguered citizens in Kaliningrad via a land corridor through Lithuania?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-23%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
90%
(+23%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
Iran has engaged in significant military actions against Israel in 2024, but there is no evidence Iran formally declared itself to be at war.. The characterization of Iran's actions as a "declaration of war" has been made by Israeli leaders, but not Iranian leaders. However, Israel has not formally declared war on Iran.
And if neither side has yet done so, it seems less and less likely.
Files
As Russians and North Koreans make gains in the Kursk salient, pushing the Ukrainian invaders backwards, might they try to continue on to Kharkiv? Unlikely this calendar year, but not impossible.