12th
Accuracy Rank

TBall

About:
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-0.605694

Relative Brier Score

129

Forecasts

12

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 11 14 158 129 483
Comments 2 2 29 26 119
Questions Forecasted 11 11 43 31 92
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 1 15 12 83
 Definitions
New Badge
TBall
earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Would France, the UK, or Germany do this in the next 61 days? (Assuming there's zero chance China, Russia or Iran would, and near-zero chance the EU could do so in such a short time). 

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Why might you be wrong?

Israel-Iran fighting escalates, and Iran declares it has nuclear warheads/will work on nuclear warheads/has Russian support to build nuclear warheads/etc. 

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New Prediction
TBall
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (+1%)
Estonia
4% (+1%)
Latvia
5% (+1%)
Lithuania

The possible election of Donald Trump as US president (p = 0.6, IMHO) throws a wild card into this question. Trump's position on NATO and on the Baltics is at least somewhat questionable, as is his approach to relations with Russia. Would he really go ballistic (pun intended) over a Russian attempt to "rescue" beleaguered citizens in Kaliningrad via a land corridor through Lithuania? 

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New Prediction
TBall
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (-23%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
90% (+23%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025

Iran has engaged in significant military actions against Israel in 2024, but there is no evidence  Iran formally declared itself to be at war.. The characterization of Iran's actions as a "declaration of war" has been made by Israeli leaders, but not Iranian leaders.  However, Israel has not formally declared war on Iran.

And if neither side has yet done so, it seems less and less likely. 


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New Prediction
TBall
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
Kuwait
0% (-1%)
Oman
0% (-1%)
Qatar
1% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (-1%)
Tunisia

Sixty-one days to go. That's not enough time for ceasefire deals to be in place between Israel and Hamas, and then for the Saudis to overcome domestic resistance. If the question asked about 610 days, my forecast would be very high. 

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New Prediction
TBall
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6% (+1%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
94% (-1%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Increasing 1 point to record my upward bias. The wars with Gaza and Lebanon may not be ending and it may not be the beginning of the end, but it seems like the end of the beginning. Saudi Arabia could be first to make move if some sort of deal is struck with Hamas, and there's at least a coin-toss chance that Trump (progenitor of the Abraham Accords) will be in the Oval Office. 

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New Prediction
TBall
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
33% (+4%)
Yes
67% (-4%)
No

NVIDIA is now #2, but volatility remains high. Slight increase in forecast but low confidence this far out.  

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New Prediction
TBall
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11% (-4%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
89% (+4%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025

An 85-year old American male has a 10.5% chance of dying in the next year. This plus the chance of incapacitation forcing resignation, balanced against presumption that he is getting the best health care possible, leads me to go with the actuarial tables. After the missile exchanges between Iran and Israel over the last month have died down, reverting to previous forecast. I do not see assassination as likely; Israel would not want to go this far and he is doubtlessly very well protected.

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New Prediction
TBall
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Oct 24, 2024 09:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9% (-1%)
Yes
Jul 24, 2024 to Jul 24, 2025
91% (+1%)
No
Jul 24, 2024 to Jul 24, 2025

Dropping one point for the passage of time, 10-->9%.

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TBall
made a comment:

Oops, thanks @sanyer!


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New Prediction

@VidurKapur, thanks for the useful comments!

When the UN Security Council takes time to consider the region, it thinks first of Lebanon and then Gaza. That fills allotted meeting time. The UN has never cared a lot about Yemen and certainly doesn't at present, so there will be little pressure on the parties. 

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