Tony-Gao

Tony Gao
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Forecasted Questions

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 03:00PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 0%
No 100% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 100%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 05:21AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 60% Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025 Dec 21, 2024 23%
No 40% Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025 Dec 21, 2024 77%
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