Confirmed previous forecast
-0.014676
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 16 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2025 to Sep 13, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Mar 13, 2025 to Sep 13, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 4, 2025 04:00PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 4, 2025 to Aug 4, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Feb 4, 2025 to Aug 4, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Going with slightly over baseline given that significant reforms are likely to occur in the FDA. Since this adds volatility to the system, low probability events should become more likely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Scientific basis of idea may not be valid
RFK could shut everything down
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 24, 2025 01:55PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+91%)
Yes
Jan 24, 2025 to Jan 24, 2026
0%
(-91%)
No
Jan 24, 2025 to Jan 24, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
lol
Files
Why might you be wrong?
no
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 20, 2025 04:00AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(-3%)
Yes
Jan 20, 2025 to Jan 20, 2026
91%
(+3%)
No
Jan 20, 2025 to Jan 20, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Copying previous logic, but slightly reducing it as far as my credence for the following goes:
Gwern recently had a take that models like o3 would be used to create training data both for o4 and for the non-cot GPT models. If that is the case then the Chinese models will be limited firstly in not having compute to run the extremely long CoT required. Even if they can, they won't want to release it publicly since they won't want to support the cloud billing for extensive inference. At the same time, this means that OpenAI and other western labs will likely be releasing multiple models, both CoT and non-CoT, filling the leaderboard.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Gwern theory wrong, other takes mentioned previously.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 4, 2025 04:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 4, 2025 to Jul 4, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Jan 4, 2025 to Jul 4, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 21, 2025 04:03AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(-23%)
Yes
Dec 21, 2024 to Dec 21, 2025
88%
(+23%)
No
Dec 21, 2024 to Dec 21, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Continuing previous reasoning.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Lowering because of o3.
Files