Forecasted Questions
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 03:00PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 03:00PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 26% | +2% | -3% |
| No | 72% | Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 74% | -2% | +3% |