Tony-Gao

Tony Gao
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 Definitions
New Prediction
Tony-Gao
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
28%
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025
72%
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Multiple Chinese labs have demonstrated the ability to enter top levels, including o1, Alibaba, and Deepseek. But:

* OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google exist.

* Top AI labs have multiple entries in LMSYS, for example currently OpenAI occupies slots 1, 2, and 3. This means that the leading company will likely occupy multiple top slots, making it hard for second rate models to edge in.

* Chinese labs are playing catch up and have to focus on computational efficiency due to shortage of hardware.

By rights, this should mean that the probability is very low, between 0-5%.

However:

* AI labs are not collaborating and can therefore variance is increased (therefore, increase the base rate somewhat).

* Top AI labs are reluctant to release new models because any subpar model will affect fundraising. As a result there are lulls where no new model is released, leaving opportunities for outsider models to take top slots beyond their actual capabilities. Moreover, other labs can specifically target these lulls to gain publicity and funding (~20% this scenario occurs)

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Why might you be wrong?

Most likely scenario is one of the top labs releases an extremely strong model that cannot be beaten for an extended period of time. Especially if there are limits of the efficient approach and pure compute remains the bottleneck, it should be difficult to get to the top 3 even using a hunting the lulls approach.

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Tony-Gao
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Tony-Gao
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Oct 27, 2024 05:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (-1%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
100% (+1%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025

Continue previous forecast. 

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Tony-Gao
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Oct 24, 2024 10:22AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
40%
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025

Firstly, the 6 month market has a percentage of 54% while this one only has 52%. The likelihood of war in 12 months should be higher, and the 6 month market has more forecasters.

Secondly, Israel has been increasingly aggressive against Hezbollah, to the extent that they are functionally at war without declaring it. The most likely scenario where this resolves NO is that Israel remains de facto at war without declaring it. The likeliest scenario for war occurring is that Hezbollah feels forced to declare war, at which point Israel can be justified in whatever it wishes, including ground invasion. To the extent that Hezbollah does not believe it can gain anything by this, it may simply try to endure instead.

Scenarios with No War:

* Israel functionally defeats Hezbollah through espionage and targeted strikes: 1-5%

* Israel suppresses Hezbollah through such means but leaves them a path to survival: 15-35%

* Israel is pressured to stop aggression by Western powers: 5-10%

* Iran develops nuclear weapons: <1%

* Nothing ever happens (prediction market meta prior): 1-10%

Scenarios with War:

* Israel attacked by coalition of forces, including Hezbollah and Iran: 1-5%

* Hezbollah feels forced to declare war on Israel: 25-50%

* Israel declares war on Hezbollah to achieve specific strategic objectives: 5-15%

* Israel defeats Hamas quickly and feels emboldened to take on the next challenger: 1-5%

These numbers are all made up and not based on anything



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My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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New Prediction
Tony-Gao
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Sep 29, 2024 01:43PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99%
No
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025

Top PLA personnel still keeps changing, some level of stability seems necessary for coordinated action.

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