Hez doesn’t want an actual war, but Israel needs to make its Northern regions safe for habitation, and with no ceasefire likely in Gaza, Hez doesn’t seem likely to back down. Israel will eventually have to step up operations in Lebanon
-0.001726
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025
65%
(0%)
No
Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
No change. No upside for Russia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
Any push near Kharkiv seems like to be on the Russian side of the border given UA advances. Russia’s offensive focus remains in Donbas
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 18, 2024 03:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(+5%)
Yes
Aug 18, 2024 to Feb 18, 2025
65%
(-5%)
No
Aug 18, 2024 to Feb 18, 2025
Israel seems to be able to achieve some of its goals without declaring war or launching a major invasion of Lebanon, but restoring the ability for civilians to live safely in Israel’s north might require a peace deal in Gaza (unlikely to be permanent) or Hamas surrender in Haza (very unlikely) or (most likely) a concerted attack on Hez. Still sceptical it will happen within 6 months, unless Trump is elected.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
No change
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
No change at this point. Don’t think a war with NATO suits Putin’s agenda, unless he thinks he can get away with a “temporary incursion” to, say, protect an ethnic Russian population in the Baltics
Files
Why do you think you're right?
To appease the Biden admin, Israel may stop short of calling the imminent “minor incursion” a “significant step” and will likely avoid making a declaration of war, though obviously a war is going on
Why might you be wrong?
This question seems likely to come down to a question of semantics. Forecasting someone else’s semantics is not my forte’