Rumors are that he is in a coma and doing poorly.
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New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025
40%
No
Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Kharkiv
0%
(-1%)
Kyiv
0%
(-1%)
Odesa
Focus seems to be on retaking territory near Kursk for the moment
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
No change
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 30, 2024 04:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
(+25%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
40%
(-25%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
To appease the Biden admin, Israel may stop short of calling the imminent “minor incursion” a “significant step” and will likely avoid making a declaration of war, though obviously a war is going on
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Why might you be wrong?
This question seems likely to come down to a question of semantics. Forecasting someone else’s semantics is not my forte’
Files
It has been cited that the operations towards Hezbollah are part of the same war that began with Hamas on October 8th. However, it may be a "new front" of the already occurring war. However, it seems the question would have already closed if it were considered a new front - Israel has already been conducting raids inside of Lebanon.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 6, 2024 01:47PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025
65%
(0%)
No
Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025
Hez doesn’t want an actual war, but Israel needs to make its Northern regions safe for habitation, and with no ceasefire likely in Gaza, Hez doesn’t seem likely to back down. Israel will eventually have to step up operations in Lebanon
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
No change. No upside for Russia
Files