TrishBytes

Re: IDF's attacks in Lebanon, this NBC article summarizes: "The successful Israeli operations have also forced Iran and Hezbollah to face a vexing question: how and when to retaliate without suffering yet more setbacks?"

Hezbollah's entire org chart has been assassinated by Israel, but organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah are likely to have greater success with recruitment given the spread of IDF's attacks.

From BBC:

"It still has a substantial arsenal of missiles, many of them long-range, precision-guided weapons which can reach Tel Aviv and other cities. There will be pressure within its ranks to use those soon, before they too get destroyed."

Iran's only response so far has been a verbal condemnation:

"The Zionist criminals need to know that they are far too weak to be able to inflict any significant damage on the solid structure of Lebanon’s Hezbollah"; and

“The massacre of the defenceless people in Lebanon once again … proved the short-sighted and stupid policy of the leaders of the usurping regime."

My assessment: Israel's sold the US on its "escalate to de-escalate" claim, Iran clearly believes in "de-escalate to de-escalate". What a mess. I've tweaked slightly to reflect just how unstable to region is becoming, but I also don't see Tehran ordering an attack on US forces unless their perception of the trade-off fundamentally changes (i.e. towards "escalate to de-escalate" by forcing direct US involvement in a fractious election year. Crazier things have happened in conflicts historically).

Adjusting with passage of time. Since the reports of partial relocation, there have been no further reports to indicate MSR Asia shutting down in China.

In fact, there are still three active job openings for AI research roles based in China (some combination of Shanghai and Beijing), as of September 30, 2024: a senior researcher (machine learning), and two researcher positions. The most recent was posted two days ago.

Adjusting in line with the crowd. With Israel's attacks on Lebanon (a country that, incidentally, KSA recently rekindled diplomatic ties with), and no concession on a two-state solution with Palestine, the prospects for normalization talks look pretty bleak, no matter how much the Biden Administration want to close this out before November.

See also: 

"“The Kingdom has communicated its firm position to the U.S. administration that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is recognized,” Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said."

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/16/saudi-israeli-normalization-obstacle-is-two-state-solution-former-cia.html

Adjusting upward slightly for a "yes" outcome but inclined still toward "no". There are still no official statements from Huawei indicating a shift within the company on Open RAN, but they are having trouble with existing clients in Europe, which I'm speculating could at the very least get Huawei leadership to take another gander. Europe (with the caveat that it is unhelpfully lumped into the EMEA category in their annual report, and does not include disaggregated revenue based on category for the region) accounts for 21% of Huawei's global revenue, essentially their largest geography outside of China. 

In Spain, they are set to lose Orange Spain as a client: "In March, Orange Spain completed a merger with local rival Másmóvil, and MasOrange, the resulting entity, does not appear to share Orange's former enthusiasm for Chinese vendors. Over the next few years, it plans to evict ZTE from the Basque region and cut back on Huawei in other parts of Spain, according to press reports originating with Expansion newspaper." 

Sources: LightReading; Expansion

In Germany, "Germany's government will allow Huawei permanent residency in the radio access network (RAN) – provided someone else stumps up the network management software." The linked article below notes that this is essentially a step toward Open RAN, but also notes this may not be the path Huawei wants to take.

Source: LightReading

2027 is still a ways away, enough time for Huawei to pivot if they feel holding onto Europe is worth the investment into Open RAN-compatible solutions.

Bumping up forecast toward bracket 4 after latest Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) report for Q2 which showed the Americas' share for Q2 was a little above 29%. 

"Regionally, year-to-year sales were up in the Americas (40.1%), China (19.5%), and Asia Pacific/All Other (16.7%), but down in Japan (-0.8%) and Europe (-12.0%). Month-to-month sales in May increased in the Americas (4.3%), Asia Pacific/All Other (3.9%), Japan (3.3%), and China (0.9%), but decreased in Europe (-0.5%)."

Source: https://www.semiconductors.org/global-semiconductor-sales-increase-18-7-year-to-year-in-july/ 

Recent reports confirm what people have been saying for months, that the air strikes and blockades on humanitarian supplies (including food) will harm the hostages. 

Netanyahu messaging however still favors "winning", even though the IDF's measure of victory is razing building indiscriminately, to the detriment of any remaining hostages.

See this quote in NYT: "Mr. Netanyahu, in his statement, described going to “heartbreaking” meetings with the captives’ relatives. “I hear. I listen. And I also don’t judge,” he said. “I am doing everything to return the hostages and win the war.”"

Finally, prospects of a ceasefire grow increasingly dim, as yet another Biden-Harris ceasefire proposal grinds to a halt:

"The latest obstacle — the abrupt introduction by Hamas of a new demand surrounding which prisoners Israel would release — underscores the frustrating, often excruciating process that has preoccupied top U.S. officials, and Biden himself, for nine months. At several recent points the United States, along with Qatar and Egypt, believed a deal was within reach, only for Israel or Hamas to derail the talks with new demands that set negotiators back weeks or months."

Nvidia's rapid growth stems from surging demand for AI chips, and as a Forbes article puts it: "If Nvidia stock were to match its 195% return over the last 12 months from now through May 2025, it would achieve a market cap of $8.4 trillion, a valuation equivalent to the combined market values of Apple, Microsoft and Google."

Other analysts have similarly optimistic takes: "Microsoft, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) will be in a race over the next year to hit a market capitalization of $4 trillion thanks to surging enthusiasm over the capabilities of artificial intelligence, according to analysts at Wedbush."

According to Nvidia’s outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, revenue is expected to be $28.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.

However, while Nvidia was the world's most valuable company and crossed a market cap of $3 trillion in June, it has dipped below that number since.

The recent dip in Nvidia stock prices point to what some analysts are calling a "market correction" as overinflated expectations around value generation from AI gradually level out, so we are unlikely to see the same astronomical numbers in the coming year. Nvidia will remain in the top 5, but will not meet the highs it reached in  2023-2024.

Nvidia is also going to come under an FTC anti-trust investigation:

"The Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission struck the deal over the past week, and it is expected to be completed in the coming days, according to two people with knowledge of the matter, who were not authorized to speak publicly about the confidential discussions.

Under the arrangement, the Justice Department will take the lead in investigating whether the behavior of Nvidia, the biggest maker of A.I. chips, has violated antitrust laws, the people said. The F.T.C. will play the lead role in examining the conduct of OpenAI, which makes the ChatGPT chatbot, and Microsoft, which has invested $13 billion in OpenAI and made deals with other A.I. companies, the people said."

Meanwhile, Apple and Microsoft have been going strong (though I'd be interested to see how "Apple Intelligence" affects its stock prices as it rolls out). 

Starting with a 70% probability of a "No" outcome.