TrishBytes

Starting this question in the aftermath of the US election. Two main factors: whether the US will continue its substantive security engagements with Taiwan and whether Beijing is willing to risk retaliation from a far more unpredictable Washington DC. Trump, in his own words, is " f------ crazy".

From an NBC roundup of expert comments, "A Trump presidency “will entail significant uncertainty for Taiwan,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council who is based in Taipei. Trump said repeatedly during the campaign that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defending it against China, likening the relationship to insurance, and that its globally dominant semiconductor industry is “stealing” American jobs. Taiwan already spends billions of dollars on U.S. military equipment."

The lower-level aggression, in the form of military drills, is likely to continue. Just last month, "China employed a record 125 aircraft, as well as its Liaoning aircraft carrier and ships, in large-scale military exercises surrounding Taiwan and its outlying islands Monday, simulating the sealing off of key ports in a move that underscores the tense situation in the Taiwan Strait, officials said. China made clear it was to punish Taiwan’s president for rejecting Beijing’s claim of sovereignty over the self-governed island."

Well NVIDIA just became the world’s most valuable company (November 6, 2024) during the post-election rally in stocks. Flipping my forecast, but not raising to 100% since resolution requires NVIDIA to maintain this position till May 31, 2025.

I. What are the criteria for a planet to be potentially habitable?

"To develop a reasonable estimate, the researchers looked at exoplanets similar in size to Earth and thus most likely to be rocky planets. They also looked at so-called Sun-like stars, around the same age as our Sun and approximately the same temperature. Another consideration for habitability is whether the planet could have the conditions necessary to support liquid water."

According to this article, there could be 300 million potentially habitable planets (PHPs).

II. How many new planets did NASA catalog on average in 2024?

199 new exoplanets were added to NASA's Exoplanet Archive, as of November 5, 2024. This would be around 19 per month. Smallest update was two planets, largest was 52 (!!).

III. How many potentially habitable planets as of November 5, 2024?

One: LHS 1140 b is a potentially habitable water world. LHS1140 b was "discovered" in 2017.

However, noting Michal's analysis (https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/143508), December has historically been an active month for updates.

Lowering with passage of time.

Additionally, over the weekend (November 2), the WHO and UN reported that Israel forces violated a humanitarian pause which it had agreed to in August. The pause was intended to support polio vaccinations.

"Hours after the campaign rolled out, reports indicated that a healthcare centre in the north had been hit, injuring six people, including four children, in a location where a humanitarian pause had been in place, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) chief.

“We have received an extremely concerning report that the Sheikh Radwan primary healthcare centre in northern Gaza was struck today while parents were bringing their children to the lifesaving polio vaccination in an area where a humanitarian pause was agreed to allow vaccination to proceed, ” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in a social media post."

Confirming previous forecast

Further reducing with time. We would likely have seen more signals if a close-down or relocation was imminent. 

New from Axios:

"CIA Director Bill Burns discussed a new formulation for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal in a meeting on Sunday with Israeli and Qatari counterparts: a month-long pause in the fighting, with Hamas releasing around 8 hostages and Israel releasing dozens of Palestinian prisoners, according to three Israeli officials."

However, Axios' assessment is that "A breakthrough is unlikely before the presidential election, and both Israel and Hamas will likely adjust their positions based on the results.".

The Presidential race is still extremely close (+there is likely going to be some contestation about the results, which will keep a US president busy at home), so a pause deal will likely be pushed to next year -- and substantial US involvement is necessary for a deal.

Also noting @VidurKapur's comment:

"And if Trump wins there are rumours that Israel may formally annex Area C of the Occupied West Bank (comprising about 60% of the land), though this didn't happen toward the end of the first Trump Administration despite Netanyahu's hopes. This would all be incompatible with Saudi Arabia's stated conditions for normalization, namely a viable Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital." I also agree with his assessment that KSA may reconsider if they feel the incoming US administration is less amenable to their demand regarding a two-state solution.

New from Axios: 

"CIA Director Bill Burns discussed a new formulation for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal in a meeting on Sunday with Israeli and Qatari counterparts: a month-long pause in the fighting, with Hamas releasing around 8 hostages and Israel releasing dozens of Palestinian prisoners, according to three Israeli officials."

However, Axios' assessment is that "A breakthrough is unlikely before the presidential election, and both Israel and Hamas will likely adjust their positions based on the results.".

The Presidential race is still extremely close (+there is likely going to be some contestation about the results, which will keep a US president busy at home), so a pause deal will likely be pushed to next year -- and substantial US involvement is necessary for a deal.

Adjusting slightly to align with the crowd + the Orange Spain Open RAN rollout I was tracking provides another point to support the fact that Open RAN will not open the doors for Huawei in European markets that were iffy on Huawei to begin with. And those that have no issues with Huawei do not require Huawei's equipment to be Open RAN compatible. 

See:

"The five-year deal announced today is promoted under the label of open RAN, whose interfaces should theoretically allow MasOrange to combine parts from different vendors instead of buying a fully integrated product set from Ericsson. Yet this arrangement appears to offer even less opportunity to others than AT&T's did. The US telco had at least named Fujitsu, a longstanding Ericsson partner, as a provider of radio units in certain areas. Some IT components would come from Dell and Intel, it also said. The release about MasOrange, by contrast, identifies no other technology partner."

https://www.lightreading.com/5g/ericsson-open-ran-for-masorange-may-shut-door-for-huawei