Forecasted Questions
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 12:51PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 10, 2024 12:51PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 0% | 2% | -2% | -4% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 0% | 11% | -11% | -14% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 30% | 27% | +3% | -1% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 70% | 35% | +35% | +6% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 0% | 25% | -25% | +12% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 05:47PM UTC
(10 hours ago)
Nov 18, 2024 05:47PM UTC
(10 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 8% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 92% | -2% | +0% |