Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 07:02AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 07:02AM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 07:04AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 07:04AM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 8% | 7% | +1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 04:37PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 04:37PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 04:38PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 04:38PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 04:38PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 04:38PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 04:39PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 04:39PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025 | Jan 29, 2025 | 12% | -7% | +3% |
| No | 95% | Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025 | Jan 29, 2025 | 88% | +7% | -3% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 04:44PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 04:44PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 12% | 3% | +9% | -1% |
| Kyiv | 12% | 1% | +11% | +0% |
| Odesa | 6% | 2% | +4% | +0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 04:45PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 04:45PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 04:45PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 04:45PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 04:45PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 04:45PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 33% | -23% | +12% |
| No | 90% | 67% | +23% | -12% |