Just a random guess. May still be too soon for this.
0.257765
Relative Brier Score
129
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 19 | 32 | 129 | 129 | 129 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| Questions Forecasted | 18 | 18 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
95%
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 49
0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
100%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
0%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 80
Russia shows some exhaustion by using NK forces. So hopefully no resources for more aggression. And so less perceived threat.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
90%
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Just baseline guess and availability bias.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2026
80%
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2026
Cyber attacks are easy, but producing a kinetic effect is hard.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025
70%
No
Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025
Purely based on the visible commitment of China to become a leader in AI.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-3%)
Yes
93%
(+3%)
No
Adjusted to crowd, time and political situation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
0%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
70%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
I have heard no news about risk of deposition.