Putin does not seem eager and he has time.
Trump is in a hurry but his influence is limited.
-0.126204
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
93
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 7 | 233 | 93 | 250 |
| Comments | 0 | 7 | 70 | 40 | 85 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 7 | 56 | 40 | 57 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
10%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
50%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
40%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
0%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm not an expert.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Less than 30 days
0%
30 days
0%
31-60 days
0%
61-90 days
90%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Either it will be a weak cease fire that will collapse quickly, or it willbe solid.
Trump will want it to be solid. Putin has time to wait.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm not an expert.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(-10%)
Yes
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
70%
(+10%)
No
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Africa is not much in the news right now
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I have no model for this
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(-2%)
Yes
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
92%
(+2%)
No
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
North Korea is not much in the news right now
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I have not done any research
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Confirm previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirm previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(-2%)
Yes
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
92%
(+2%)
No
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
North Korea is not in the news now
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't follow this actively
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This has not happened yet
A lot of bad things would have to come together
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Prediction is purely on personal knowledge
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Trump is in a hurry and will try to exert pressure.
Why might you be wrong?
I'm not an expert.