Wooster

About:

Manager @ Cultivate Labs, bringing crowd forecasting to clients in finance, government, and the corporate world. Background in hedge fund investing at one of the big Canadian pension plans.

You can find me forecasting as Wooster on RANGE and Ziewert on GJO, the other public forecasting platforms powered by Cultivate Labs:

https://www.rangeforecasting.org/forecaster/Wooster
https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Ziewert

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Forecasted Questions
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Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 5%
No 95% 95%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 30, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 30, 2024 05:51PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 8% Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 8%
No 92% Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 92%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 24, 2024 06:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 3% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 4% 4%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 0% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 1%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 05:54PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 9% 9%
No 91% 91%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 98% 97%
No 2% 3%
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