Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 28, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 28, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | -2% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +2% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 06:48PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 24, 2024 06:48PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 3% | 3% | +0% | +1% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 4% | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2024 05:54PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 18, 2024 05:54PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 5% | +4% | -3% |
| No | 91% | 95% | -4% | +3% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | 97% | +1% | +1% |
| No | 2% | 3% | -1% | -1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 06:00PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 18, 2024 06:00PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025 | Dec 18, 2024 | 1% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 96% | Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025 | Dec 18, 2024 | 99% | -3% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 02:41AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 02:41AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025 | Feb 19, 2025 | 12% | +38% | +0% |
| No | 50% | Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025 | Feb 19, 2025 | 88% | -38% | +0% |