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Forecasted Questions

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 5%
No 95% 95%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 2%
No 99% 98%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 06:48PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 3% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 4% 5%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 0% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 1%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2024 05:54PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 9% 5%
No 91% 95%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 98% 97%
No 2% 3%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 06:00PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025 Dec 18, 2024 1%
No 96% Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025 Dec 18, 2024 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 02:41AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 50% Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025 Feb 19, 2025 12%
No 50% Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025 Feb 19, 2025 88%
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