Wooster

42 so far, by my count, representing a pretty dramatically accelerated pace compared to the previous couple years. I suspect we might yet regress toward the mean a bit, but maybe it'll remain high while negotiations over a ceasefire occur? 

With the Trump admin restarting nuclear talks, geopolitical volatility is likely to fall a bit for the next several months? 

With Trump & Co back in office, I think the odds go up a bit, particularly for Saudi and Saudi-friendly nations. 

Looks like Argentina continues to trend in the right direction and they all have benefited from relatively lower tariffs in the trade war, so I'm not sure there's a near-term catalyst for any of these three?

Nearly out of time on this one.

With the Trump tariffs, although Egypt's position has deteriorated when looking only at Egypt (10% tariff added), it's actually improved relative to much of the world, so if anything this might end up being a net-opportunity for Egypt? 

Likelihood of this seems vanishingly low. All three are NATO countries and Russia's military capabilities seem to have declined and are likely to continue to do so over the period of the question. 

One perhaps under-appreciated effect of the trade war may be the impact on oil prices, which could force Russia to concede more than they're presently willing to, should it continue. 

I suspect the best shot at starting a ceasefire is still in the near future, and then not again until the fall when military opportunity declines again? 

Reducing for time. Most plausible is probably an attack on an oil well, but many of these are run by American companies and I can't see Venezuela taking that risk?

Looks like there's some friction in Zimbabwe in particular, but otherwise it doesn't seem like there's particularly higher risk than the base rate would suggest at this point.