Wooster

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-0.031648

Relative Brier Score

2

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 5 78 57 430
Comments 0 0 2 2 25
Questions Forecasted 0 4 21 16 56
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 7 6 49
 Definitions
New Prediction
Wooster
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95% (+5%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
5% (-5%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025

Bumping slightly more as it sounds like they're targeting a broad range of military targets. 

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New Prediction
Wooster
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90% (+70%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
10% (-70%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025

Looks like there are ongoing strikes across Iran tonight, could well strike a nuclear and certainly an offensive missile facility. 


In my last forecast I missed that missile facilities were included, so making a big shift with thr latest news 

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New Prediction
Wooster
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
98% (+2%)
Yes
2% (-2%)
No

Time

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Wooster
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Resolution criteria set a pretty high bar. Seems like inflation spiraling out of control might be the most possible of the group, esp. since the EGX30 one is within a calendar month. 

Apart from Suez traffic, Egypt seems mostly unaffected by the ongoing conflicts around Israel, and I'm not sure I see that changing. Probably the greatest risks are internal at this point. 


A bit tricky trying to calibrate for a full year, but starting off fairly low?  

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New Badge
Wooster
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Wooster
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
4% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Wooster
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (-2%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025
92% (+2%)
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025

Moderating toward the crowd.

Files
New Prediction
Wooster
made their 8th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 05:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6% (0%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
94% (0%)
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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