Wooster

6 months is likely too short a window yet, but with Trump returning to power, I think this is very much back on the table. 

Will wait to see how Israel proceeds vis-a-vis Iran and its proxies over the next few months, but I can see a scenario where they escalate dramatically, achieving strategic goals, and then declare victory, bringing major combat to a close. With most conflict wrapped up, the Saudis and others would be able to come back to the table without being seen to abandon the Palestinians. 

That said, the above scenario still requires a number of specific things to go the right way quickly, only bumping my estimate to 4% for now. 

Bumping slightly more as it sounds like they're targeting a broad range of military targets. 

Looks like there are ongoing strikes across Iran tonight, could well strike a nuclear and certainly an offensive missile facility. 

In my last forecast I missed that missile facilities were included, so making a big shift with thr latest news 

Time

Resolution criteria set a pretty high bar. Seems like inflation spiraling out of control might be the most possible of the group, esp. since the EGX30 one is within a calendar month. 

Apart from Suez traffic, Egypt seems mostly unaffected by the ongoing conflicts around Israel, and I'm not sure I see that changing. Probably the greatest risks are internal at this point. 

A bit tricky trying to calibrate for a full year, but starting off fairly low?